AVB's 4-3-3 w/ Spurs: Tactical & Player Analysis & Discussion

[sloth]

From Spurs Lad's post above: http://www.statsbomb.com/2013/08/epl-season-preview-tottenham-hotspur/

The best player on your team is being courted by one of the biggest clubs in Spain.
It’s a familiar refrain in North London, but one that has generally been reserved for Arsenal. Amusingly to Spurs fans, Arsenal seem to have run out of players good enough to interest Real Madrid and Barcelona. Not so amusingly, the player Real Madrid seem dead set on buying for a massive wad of cash this summer is…

Gareth Bale.

Most players are easily replaceable. The concept of buy low/sell high is in full effect in the transfer markets, and teams that heed this tend to do well in the long term, Spurs among them.

The problem is that some players are special. They bring a unique skill set that is not easily replaceable, either individually or via the sum of their parts.

Gareth Bale is one of those.

But with 100M+ on offer…?

2012-13
League Finish: 5th
Notable Cup Finishes: Europa League QF
Goal Difference Rank: 6th
Shot Dominance Rank: 1st
PDO Rank: 16th (94.35)
Note: I explain what the metrics mean and why you might care in the metrics appendix at the bottom.

In the last four seasons, Spurs have made the Champions League one time. However, they finished seven total points out of 4th place in the three years they missed the CL, including just one point behind last season. That’s less than one win a season short of CL riches. Those late draws at home to start the year against West Brom and Norwich. That crazy, error-filled 3-2 loss at Anfield where Spurs were totally ascendant right up until they turned into a total shambles. A one-goal swing in any of those matches would have qualified them for the Champions’ League this year, and the Gareth Bale saga would be on the back burner.

Football is a game of the finest of margins.

The Good

Spurs had the best Shot Dominance figure in the league. They also had the best defense when it came to limiting shots opponents take. A lot of that is down to Andre Villas-Boas’s tactical system, which is outstanding. There’s a reason PSG courted him heavily when Ancelotti wanted out – he’s very good. His lineup choices often leave something to be desired, but it’s hard to argue with the end result.

Offensively, Spurs took the second most shots per game, and actually averaged the most Shots on Target of any team in the league. Again, this is really good.

So if the basic metrics on both sides of the ball indicate they were really good, why did they finish the year with the 6th best goal difference? And more importantly, how did the team that gave up the fewest shots overall end up conceding the 7th most goals in the league?!?

[Graphic missing]

Aha! This… this is not good.

Spurs conceded the 5th highest percent of shots from Prime + Secondary locations in the league. So despite the fact that they limited the total number of shots opponents took, the ones they did manage to fire off had a fairly high likelihood of scoring. That’s a big deal.

Additionally, look at the percent of shots they took from “prime” positions on offense. 27% is baaaaad. Actually, it’s worse than that. It’s putrid. In fact, it is so awful that the only team that took a lower percentage of shots from the best position on the field in the entire league was QPR, who not-so-coincidentally scored the fewest goals.

But AVB doesn’t believe in analytics, so he should totally skip over this part of the preview and carry on with what they have been doing. [Signed, Arsenal and Liverpool fans.]

Since we are still focusing on the things Spurs did well, it should be noted that their midfield was solid. Sandro’s injury robbed Spurs of a great player, and forced them to play a Scott Parker who looked nothing like he did three years ago, but the Brazilian was a beast. Moussa Dembele was one of the secret signings of the season, as was Tancredi Palmeri’s favourite player, Jan Vertonghen. Aaron Lennon was again quite good (and started 33 league matches!), and though inconsistent, Kyle Walker is approaching frontrunner status for England’s right back spot at the World Cup. Oh, and though analytics has a mixed opinion of him (look at the locations opponents took shots at him!) I really liked Huge Lloris.

The Bad

For a team that nearly qualified for the Champions’ League, Spurs sure do have a lot of areas to improve on.
A 35-year-old William Gallas started 16 times for them last season. That was not a positive. Scott Parker(32) also started 15 matches, and looked totally over his head in terms of quality of play versus what was required. And though he was great for many years, Brad Freidel really started to show his age last season. Which was 287*.

The left back play of Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Naughton also left something to be desired, with BAE in the bottom half of the league for passing completion from that position. Danny Rose, who is back from a good spell on loan to a dreadful Sunderland team, may actually be the best option there. [Aside: Did you know Kyle Naughton will be 25 this season? Seriously! He looks like he’s 12, but he’s actually entering his prime this year. So while it is natural when looking at him to think, “Oh, he’s young – he’ll get better as he gets older,” the real answer is that he might not.]

Finally you come to Jermain Defoe and Emmanuel Adebayor. It’s fairest to say Defoe was adequate last season. A goals per90 rate of .41 is average for a Top 5 team, but he really doesn’t bring that much else to the squad. He also turns 31 this season, and there’s no reason to expect he’ll get any better from this point on. If he stays at Spurs, expect him to be featured as mostly a late-game poacher from here out. If he wants to be the primary option, he’ll need to do it elsewhere.

The real problem up front came from Emmanuel Adebayor. Though he has a lifetime G/90 rate of .51 in the Premier League (exceptional), last year he only managed to produce a dreadful .28, and 1 assist in 18 starts. Obviously this was after signing a new, 3-year contract as part of a permanent transfer. There has perhaps never been a player as in need of a low base, incentive-laden contract as the lanky, immensely-talented, but difficult-to-motivate Togolese.

Beast mode Ade is unstoppable. Disinterested Ade is a liability. Which version will Spurs get more of from here on out?

*In dog years.

Transfer Activity

There have been two major sales so far this summer from Spurs Chairman Daniel Levy. The first is a bit confusing, as they shipped young center back Steven Caulker off to Cardiff. Levy got a decent price for him (£8-9M), but even though he was only 21, Caulker was actually pretty good last year and looks like he could mature into a fine central defender.
Additionally, with Gallas now off the books, Spurs aren’t exactly deep at his position. It likely won’t be a bad transfer, but it’s really unusual to sell a handy, homegrown defender in that age range.

The other sale was that of Clint Dempsey. Though Spurs just bought him last year, Deuce turns 31 this season, and would have had a hard time making the starting lineup. Seattle and the MLS stepped forward with a good offer (£6M), and Levy shipped him back to the United States. Good business all around.

As for incoming players, Spurs purchased midfielder Paulinho for £17M, forward Roberto Soldado for £26.5M, and left wing Nacer Chadli for £7M. That’s a total outlay of £51M on just three players (£14M of which was offset by outgoing players), and Spurs still have needs…

Do they have to sell more players just to stay on budget?

Conclusion

I don’t know if you noticed, but I didn’t mention Bale’s name one time after the introduction, yet he’s the elephant in the room for Spurs entire season. At only 23 years old, Gareth Bale was awesome. The Welshman is one of the few players in the PL that can completely turn a game on its head by himself, and his combination of speed, power, shooting accuracy, and passing ability is truly rare. Additionally, because of his age and the fact that he’s still learning to be an attacking player (he was a left back two years ago!), there’s a good chance Bale continues to get better in the coming years.

Is he worth £100M?

Probably not.

Perceptually though, he might mean that much to Spurs fans. By taking a stand against the riches of Madrid, Levy is reinvigorating the entire Spurs base in the process, despite the fact they missed out on the Champions’ League again.
“See Gareth Bale now, before he’s gone forever!” is a pretty good slogan for selling season tickets.

However, even without Gareth Bale, Spurs are a very good team.

Even though they overpaid for him (mostly based on age), Soldado will either fill the gaping hole Spurs had at forward for most of last year, or he’ll push Adebayor to be great again, both of which are excellent outcomes. Spurs also go into the season boasting one of the strongest midfield cores in the league (Dembele, Paulinho, and Sandro), a destructive group that can also make plays when required. I even like their attacking midfield, who I think will look quite a bit better than last season, when they seemed to have trouble adapting to what AVB required from them (Sig and Holtby have the potential to be outstanding).

Prediction

If Spurs keep Bale, they are the 4th best team in England right now. If David Moyes implements the same dreary offense at Manchester United that he had at Everton, they might just be the 3rd.

Given Arsenal’s pantomime circus of transfer business, right now I like Spurs to take one of the Champions League spots this year. If AVB takes some analytics on board and fixes the shot locations, I could even be convinced Spurs are darkhorse candidates for a league title. Their system, plus an improvement in player quality (and in the case of Bale, Walker, Naughton, Sig, and Holtby, maturity) means this isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds.

Oh, and I have no inside info on this whatsoever, but…

I think Spurs will keep Gareth Bale this year for one final run, and a) give him a 300% raise (150K/week) plus b) promise to sell him to the highest bidder next summer in the process.

Just like what happened with the other Ronaldo.

 

[LukeBB]

While i don't disagree with what you are saying about 433 and it's uses, i have been calling for 433 since the Harry days personally. I do however disagree that we have been playing 433 this summer, we did so vs Swindon apparently but I haven't seen that game, however i know 100% we did not play 433 vs Sunderland, China or Monaco. In those games it was 4231 with Sigurdsson starting wide left and rotating with Chadli/Dempsey in CAM as the game went on, the same 4231 we played for nearly every game last season.

That leads me to doubt whether we are actually going to go 433 this year, Espanyol will say a lot but i doubt it is going to happen now, really, really want us to go 433 as i believe with the squad we have, 433 could lead to a title challenge, but with the 4231 wide man in CAM thing i feel we will struggle through games like we did last year.

We also need to work on defending, as someone mentioned, the high line high pressure is fine if applied well but we don't do so, this shows that we conceded more goals than the top 7 last year and only 1 or 2 less than Stoke.

A large reason we played 4-2-3-1 was because we didn't have the midfielders available to make a solid, working 4-3-3 midfield trio. We had to work with a midfield of Hudd, Parker, Sig and Carroll whereas we were missing instrumental players for a 4-3-3 in the likes of Sandro, Paulinho, Dembele, Holtby etc for large parts of pre-season!

When learning a new tactic it takes time to learn and when you are learning a new tactic mistakes can be made and negative results like 1-1 and 0-0 draws with Swindon & Col U. In order to keep up confidence before new season you revert to familiar tactics to get positive results like 6-0 win over South China

We were conceding goals because we missed Kaboul because of injury, in his place we had to play Gallas and Dawson, both who don't have the pace and power required for this tactic, high-pressing game, that's why Gallas sometimes didn't go up for corners cause he didn't have the pace to get back in reasonable time. Also we played Friedel for the first part of the season, whose cautious, don't wander past the 6 yard box, lack of command of area was inappropriate for the 4-3-3 which requires a commanding and courageous sweeper-keeper. Also the fact that when Lloris had Dawson and Caulker playing in front of him the lack of language skills and communication led to several instances of Caulker attempting to clear the ball rather than letting Lloris grab it!

 

[LukeBB]

Here's a thought, most of us have been assuming AVB will revert to 433 for next season, but does that mean we've seen the last of 4231? The reason for saying it is that Bale really loved that free-role last season, and the team was set-up to maximise him in that position, but there is no free-role in the 433. I think assuming we have the fit personnel for it we'll start most games 433, but wouldn't be surprised to see tactical shifts during the match, and even the occasional surprise at the start of the match. Nothing like being able to play more than one way for making it hard for opposition coaches to prepare to play against you...

Edit: And just as I write that a plethora of posts with the same thought...

Bale can still enjoy a similar free-role, get in/ near the box whenever he can role as a roaming, cutting in, direct running RWinger. Bale was one of our only weapons last season with the out-of-form Ade and Defoe and the sales of Modric and VDV, so giving him license to roam was the only way to get goals for us. Now under a more purposeful role other players like Chadli and Soldado and Paulinho can score goals so we don't have to rely on Bale any more! if that makes sense We are now set up so we can share large amounts of goals and don't have to try and get the best out of one player to get all the goals, at Porto all of AVB's front 3 as well as his box-to-boxer Guarin got 10 goals or more, so the tactic is set up to get goals from all over the pitch

Bale will still enjoy seeing a lot of the ball and scoring many goals, heck Hulk at Porto on the RW was directly involved in 57 of Porto's goals (36 goals and 21 assists) under AVB.

 

[LukeBB]

You can tell that Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson has been shifting some units recently.

I'll be honest I haven't actually read it myself, why is it any good?

 

[sloth]

You can tell that Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson has been shifting some units recently.

I had a brief scan of the stat-bomb site and it looks very interesting, the author of the article I reprinted is lead trader for a bookmaker, the guy who did the graphics is a Chartered Accountant by day and football statto/bettor by night...

 

[LukeBB]

The biggest worry though, with or without Bale, is chance creation. I've just waffled on about scoring goals but one thing we did worse than those above us last season (and some teams below us) was create genuine quality chances, particularly when teams sit deep. In transition we are going to be ruthless, pacy and dynamic and we will pick up lots of points away from home and probably have a decent record against the top teams, but do we have the craft to unlock defences that sit deep? Siggy/Carroll/ Holtby are probably our most canny players, although for fans that are used to Modric and VDV, its nowhere near that level and I think there will be some frustrating WHL games banging our heads against an 11 man brick wall, whether we are 433 or 4231.

Here's something I posted on the ITK thread when someone said we lack the creativity of players like Silva and Mata:

I understand what you're saying, compared to Mata and Silva our supposed "creative" players pale in comparison but that also raises the argument concerning the team around these players. At Man City Silva has pacy, world class forwards to feed (Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo etc) these forwards will always be looking to make killer runs and know what to expect from these creative players, players like Aguero will know that Silva is capable of slipping a ball through the legs of two defenders and knows that Silva is already expecting him to make a run! Like Silva, Mata is surrounded by similar minded players like Hazard and Oscar who know what runs to make and to expect from each other!

At Spurs, when we played 4-2-3-1 and say the front four being mainly (Sig, Bale, Lennon, Ade) its fairly easy to see why we never saw similar creative passes. Firstly, Sig was stuck out on the left so his influence was limited when he was shoved into the corner by a FB, Lennon's game also relies on receiving the ball on the right, Lennon likes to beat the FB rather than receive the ball behind the FB (and so never made the runs creative players look for!). Bale was always hunting the ball (similar to Holtby) and was usually dropping as far back as the half-way line to receive that, and even then when he had it he was always looking for goal himself. Ade was never in the box anyway! He always wandered out wide, limiting his influence, he moved to retain possession rather than force a creative move. Holtby was a new arrival shoved into a new team, no one knew what he was capable of and vice-versa i.e no one expected Holtby to drop deep in order to receive the ball and then launch the attack with a 30 yard through ball, also players like Bale and Defoe never expected he was hoping/ expecting them to make the run he was looking for!

Maybe now in AVB's 4-3-3 where he knows the definite role of every member of the squad, he should be drilling them telling the midfielders what type of service these forwards will expect and telling the forwards what type of runs they'll be expected to make. Now we may see a more tactically creative style of play, where players like Holtby and Sig and Dembele can show their creative and passing ability feeding the forwards with pre-planned moves worked on in training.

PS I hope this goes someway as to explaining why I have faith in players like Holtby and Sig and even Dembele to be creative enough for now!

 

[Bus-Conductor]

Doubly interesting given that it's roots are probably with Rinus Michels (Ajax) and Valeriy Lobanovskyi (Dynamo Kiev).

It really is one of the most effective things a football team can do though and the fits and starts we did it in last season were great to watch (Inter at home being the main example).

Herrera, Inter Milan.

 

[ShelfSide18]

I'll be honest I haven't actually read it myself, why is it any good?

Great book, a new updated edition has just been released too.

 

[ShelfSide18]

Here's something I posted on the ITK thread when someone said we lack the creativity of players like Silva and Mata:

I understand what you're saying, compared to Mata and Silva our supposed "creative" players pale in comparison but that also raises the argument concerning the team around these players. At Man City Silva has pacy, world class forwards to feed (Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo etc) these forwards will always be looking to make killer runs and know what to expect from these creative players, players like Aguero will know that Silva is capable of slipping a ball through the legs of two defenders and knows that Silva is already expecting him to make a run! Like Silva, Mata is surrounded by similar minded players like Hazard and Oscar who know what runs to make and to expect from each other!

At Spurs, when we played 4-2-3-1 and say the front four being mainly (Sig, Bale, Lennon, Ade) its fairly easy to see why we never saw similar creative passes. Firstly, Sig was stuck out on the left so his influence was limited when he was shoved into the corner by a FB, Lennon's game also relies on receiving the ball on the right, Lennon likes to beat the FB rather than receive the ball behind the FB (and so never made the runs creative players look for!). Bale was always hunting the ball (similar to Holtby) and was usually dropping as far back as the half-way line to receive that, and even then when he had it he was always looking for goal himself. Ade was never in the box anyway! He always wandered out wide, limiting his influence, he moved to retain possession rather than force a creative move. Holtby was a new arrival shoved into a new team, no one knew what he was capable of and vice-versa i.e no one expected Holtby to drop deep in order to receive the ball and then launch the attack with a 30 yard through ball, also players like Bale and Defoe never expected he was hoping/ expecting them to make the run he was looking for!

Maybe now in AVB's 4-3-3 where he knows the definite role of every member of the squad, he should be drilling them telling the midfielders what type of service these forwards will expect and telling the forwards what type of runs they'll be expected to make. Now we may see a more tactically creative style of play, where players like Holtby and Sig and Dembele can show their creative and passing ability feeding the forwards with pre-planned moves worked on in training.

PS I hope this goes someway as to explaining why I have faith in players like Holtby and Sig and even Dembele to be creative enough for now!

Totally agree.

Last season we bemoaned our lack of creativity on the ball but it takes 2 to tango, and the movement off the ball was pretty poor in general. It was easy enough last year writing that off as a hangover from Redknapp and the loss of VDV/Mod and AVBs more methodical approach, this year no excuses.

Attacking movement, building attacks and varied patterns of play should be coached and transferred from Hotspur way to WHL, players knowing their roles and responsibilities. We may not have the best creative types, but we're pretty good in most other departments (although our FBs still look a walking own goal at the moment) so we're looking healthy, and I have so much more faith in AVB than HR to get the best out of them.

I'd love a Mata or a Silva, but for now we're going to have to be a bit more functional and blow the house down with our pace, power and strength.

 

[sloth]

You can tell that Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson has been shifting some units recently.

Ah, just got what your reply was referring too!!

 

[Kalim]

Yeah and whats great about this is that you wouldn't complain much whoever 3 of the 6 were chosen to start. They'll all quality players and this within-squad competition will bring the best out of all the players. Hopefully it'll have a similar affect as to what Holtby's arrival did on Sigurdsson, once Holtby arrived Sigurdsson gained extra motivation and enjoyed a highly successful end to the season, when he helped complete comebacks against the likes of West Ham, Everton and Basel.

Could you see Capoue playing as a cb with Verts, as he is capable of driving forward, playing throgh balls to Soldado/Bale/Chadli and getting back quicker to cover than Dawson who is slow on the turn?

 

[LukeBB]

Could you see Capoue playing as a cb with Verts, as he is capable of driving forward, playing throgh balls to Soldado/Bale/Chadli and getting back quicker to cover than Dawson who is slow on the turn?

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we saw him staring at CB for a few games, when in possession his technical ability, physical presence and creative mindset would help dominate play and could help launch attacks from the back to suit AVB's "vertical" football style, in theory he should offer us a similar presence at the back that Kaboul would do so once Kaboul is back we can unleash Capoue into the midfield.

 

[Kalim]

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we saw him staring at CB for a few games, when in possession his technical ability, physical presence and creative mindset would help dominate play and could help launch attacks from the back to suit AVB's "vertical" football style, in theory he should offer us a similar presence at the back that Kaboul would do so once Kaboul is back we can unleash Capoue into the midfield.

In which of the 3 mid roles?
Replacing, covering or upgrading?

 

[Firsttouch]

Midfield will be Dembele, Paulinho & Sandro

anyone thought of Dembele playing further fwd.....

 

[LukeBB]

In which of the 3 mid roles?
Replacing, covering or upgrading?

rotation and competition, Capoue can play in either the anchor man role or the box-to-box roles, Capoue showed himself to be able to score goals from open play by arriving late in the box, similar to the way Paulinho scores

 

[LukeBB]

anyone thought of Dembele playing further fwd.....

If the midfield is made up of Sandro, Paulinho and Dembele then I believe Dembele will be played as the most advanced CM the only further he could be played is on the LW as that would be an opportunity to get his positive running and dribbling ability further up the pitch but the LW role i see will be filled by Chadli, Lennon, Sig and Townsend

 

[Firsttouch]

If the midfield is made up of Sandro, Paulinho and Dembele then I believe Dembele will be played as the most advanced CM the only further he could be played is on the LW as that would be an opportunity to get his positive running and dribbling ability further up the pitch but the LW role i see will be filled by Chadli, Lennon, Sig and Townsend

I believe Dembele has been turned from a fwd to a attacking midfielder by Fulham and Spurs maybe because he is far more effective facing defenders than having his back to goal

 

[LukeBB]

I believe Dembele has been turned from a fwd to a attacking midfielder by Fulham and Spurs maybe because he is far more effective facing defenders than having his back to goal

Agreed, Dembele's dribbling ability and strength are useful assets to have for a midfielder, as a midfielder he can have much more of a positive influence on the game, his bulky frame can be used to win back possession and bully opposition midfielders, he can use his pace and power to drop deep and carry the ball out of defense as well as use his dribbling ability and positive play to charge up the pitch and then play a killer ball or positive pass to one of our forwards!

 

[Firsttouch]

Agreed, Dembele's dribbling ability and strength are useful assets to have for a midfielder, as a midfielder he can have much more of a positive influence on the game, his bulky frame can be used to win back possession and bully opposition midfielders, he can use his pace and power to drop deep and carry the ball out of defense as well as use his dribbling ability and positive play to charge up the pitch and then play a killer ball or positive pass to one of our forwards!

Just imagine him doing that to fullbacks and centre halves further up the pitch.

Either way one of the first players on the team sheet semi injured or not!

Oh yeah and him cutting in from the RW getting a chance to unleash that left peg of his...

 

[LukeBB]

Just imagine him doing that to fullbacks and centre halves further up the pitch.

Either way one of the first players on the team sheet semi injured or not!

Definitely a first team player but we have such a quality squad I think if he's semi injured we should look to deploy players like Chadli, Holtby or Sig instead of Dembele just to give them a chance on the pitch and to make sure we don't lose Dembele on a long term injury