Sporting Index Premiership points spreads.
- Thread starter fatpiranha
- Start date
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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- #22
It's good that you are not put off by the fact that they have risen 10.5 pts since their opening quote. Many people would feel they had missed out on the best price and for that reason not made a logical assessment of whether value still remains. Markets are ongoing. Getting the best price is nice but missing it shouldn't colour your view as to whether there is a profit to be made.
So let's look at that.
The Saints made some judicious buys in the summer, especially Victor Wanyama. They also have several improving youngsters and a competent manager. Their finances are healthy and they may well strengthen again in January.
Last season they finished with 41 pts. Their opening quote for this season was 44.5-46 which reflected the improvements they had made. They have 19 pts after 10 games. At the same stage last season they had only 3 pts. So they are 16 points better off already. All things being equal the current quote looks way too low considering you already have a 0.5 pt profit if they only get as many pts as they did from this stage on last season which looks a doddle for a massively improved team.
All things however are not equal. Last season Southampton had a nightmare set of fixtures at the beginning of their campaign including trips to Man City, Arsenal and Everton and home matches against Man Utd and us. This season by comparison they have only faced an out of form Man Utd at home and a Liverpool team missing Suarez and Coutinho away. The rest of their fixtures are ones they could have been expected to win.
There are a lot of comparisons that can be drawn between Southampton and us. Like us they are tight defensively and like us they dominate possession and perform better away from home. Also like us they haven't been scoring many goals; the most they've scored in any game in the premiership is 2 goals. Just like us. They have the advantage that they are not involved in European competition but unlike us they don't have a very deep squad.
Things are about to get a lot tougher for the Saints. Their next league fixture is at home to bus parkers Hull followed by trips to the Emirates and Stamford Bridge. After that they are at home against Villa who are better away from home followed by a visit from Man City. Then follows a long trip to St James' Park, a home game against us, trips to Cardiff and Everton who are both strong at home and then a home game against Chelsea. That is a absolute nightmare of a fixture list and it all happens before they can reinforce in the January window. If they pick up a couple of injuries it could be a very bumpy ride.
Personally I don't think that this is the right time to back Southampton.
fatpiranha
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After 15 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 77.5-79 ................................ -2.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 75.5-77 ................................. -4.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 67-68.5 ................................ -11
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 77-78.5 ................................. +4.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66.5-68 ................................. +1
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 70-71.5 ................................. +6
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................64.5-66 ................................. +12
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 54-55.5 ................................ +9.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 54-55.5................................. +9
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 47-48.5 .................................+2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 41.5-43 ..................................+1.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 38.5-40 ..................................-4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 46-47.5 ..................................+3.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 35-36.5 ................................ -6.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31.5-33 ................................ -9.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................41.5-43 ................................. +2.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+0.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 36.5-38 ................................. =
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ..................................+6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30-31.5...................................-0.5
It's been 5 matches since i've updated this thread. Our loss against Newcastle was particularly painful (much more so spreadwise than the thrashing at Citeh) but back to back wins mean we have only dropped a point since I last updated.
Arsenal briefly went to favourite to win the premiership but are now quoted exactly as they were 5 matches ago as are Man City. Of those in title contention Chelsea have dropped 1.5 pts and Liverpool gained 0.5 pts but the big gainers are Everton who have gained a further 3.5 pts on their quote and have a nice run of winnable fixtures coming up. Arsenal are the opposite with a nightmare fixture list facing them with trips to Man City, West Ham and in form Newcastle and a home game against Chelsea before a much easier January schedule.
We also have plenty of tough matches ahead but the good news is that our end of season gives us 6 very winnable matches in April. A lot depends on the relegation battle. If it's tight then we could be facing teams battling desperately to stay up but if the relegation places are settled early then we might have a cruise against teams with nothing to play for and the summer holidays on their minds.
The big winners from the last 5 games have been Newcastle who've improved their quote by 8.5 pts and Palace who have gone up 7 pts.
The big losers are Man Utd who have dropped 6 pts followed by Fulham who go down 3.5 pts and Cardiff who drop 3 pts.
Overall buying Everton (+12), Newcastle (+9.5) and Southampton (+9) and selling Man Utd (-11), Sunderland (-9.5) and Fulham (-6.5) are the trades that have performed best since the opening quotes.
It is interesting to note that with a goal difference of -1 we have been the most efficient team in converting goals into pts. The same applies to Newcastle who have the same goal difference and a pt less than us. Villa's GD is only one worse than ours but they have 8 points less while Man City have a GD 27 better than us but only have 2 pts more. Maybe we're not as unlucky as some of our fans seem to think
.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 77.5-79 ................................ -2.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 75.5-77 ................................. -4.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 67-68.5 ................................ -11
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 77-78.5 ................................. +4.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66.5-68 ................................. +1
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 70-71.5 ................................. +6
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................64.5-66 ................................. +12
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 54-55.5 ................................ +9.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 54-55.5................................. +9
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 47-48.5 .................................+2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 41.5-43 ..................................+1.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 38.5-40 ..................................-4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 46-47.5 ..................................+3.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 35-36.5 ................................ -6.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31.5-33 ................................ -9.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................41.5-43 ................................. +2.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+0.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 36.5-38 ................................. =
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ..................................+6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30-31.5...................................-0.5
It's been 5 matches since i've updated this thread. Our loss against Newcastle was particularly painful (much more so spreadwise than the thrashing at Citeh) but back to back wins mean we have only dropped a point since I last updated.
Arsenal briefly went to favourite to win the premiership but are now quoted exactly as they were 5 matches ago as are Man City. Of those in title contention Chelsea have dropped 1.5 pts and Liverpool gained 0.5 pts but the big gainers are Everton who have gained a further 3.5 pts on their quote and have a nice run of winnable fixtures coming up. Arsenal are the opposite with a nightmare fixture list facing them with trips to Man City, West Ham and in form Newcastle and a home game against Chelsea before a much easier January schedule.
We also have plenty of tough matches ahead but the good news is that our end of season gives us 6 very winnable matches in April. A lot depends on the relegation battle. If it's tight then we could be facing teams battling desperately to stay up but if the relegation places are settled early then we might have a cruise against teams with nothing to play for and the summer holidays on their minds.
The big winners from the last 5 games have been Newcastle who've improved their quote by 8.5 pts and Palace who have gone up 7 pts.
The big losers are Man Utd who have dropped 6 pts followed by Fulham who go down 3.5 pts and Cardiff who drop 3 pts.
Overall buying Everton (+12), Newcastle (+9.5) and Southampton (+9) and selling Man Utd (-11), Sunderland (-9.5) and Fulham (-6.5) are the trades that have performed best since the opening quotes.
It is interesting to note that with a goal difference of -1 we have been the most efficient team in converting goals into pts. The same applies to Newcastle who have the same goal difference and a pt less than us. Villa's GD is only one worse than ours but they have 8 points less while Man City have a GD 27 better than us but only have 2 pts more. Maybe we're not as unlucky as some of our fans seem to think
.
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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- #24
After 17 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 79.5-81 ................................ -0.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 75.5-77 ................................. -4.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 75.5-77 ................................. +3
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 72.5-74 ................................. +8.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67.5-69 ................................. +15
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 56-57.5 ................................ +11.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 44-45.5 ................................. -0.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 37-38.5 ..................................-5.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 42.5-44 .................................. =
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31-32.5 ................................. -10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................42.5-44 ................................. +3.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+0.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 37-38.5 ................................. +0.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................38.5-40 ..................................+5.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................28.5-30...................................-1.5
For the first time Everton have overtaken us in the spread market expectations. They've got some very winnable games coming up before they have to go to Anfield at the end of January so i'll be sitting on my buy of Everton and of Lukaku until then at least.
With Man City in particular scoring for fun and us reaching the time of the season where some teams are stretched for resources i've had a little buy of the season Going For Goals market @ 470 for £5. This awards 5 pts for any team scoring 4 goals, 10pts for 5, 25 pts for 6, 50 for 7 and 100 for 8 or more goals. Currently the season total is 195 pts (Man City have accounted for 115 of those and Liverpool 35) so I need another 275 pts from the remaining games to break even which is about 13.1 pts a game week.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 79.5-81 ................................ -0.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 75.5-77 ................................. -4.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 75.5-77 ................................. +3
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 72.5-74 ................................. +8.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67.5-69 ................................. +15
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 56-57.5 ................................ +11.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 44-45.5 ................................. -0.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 37-38.5 ..................................-5.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 42.5-44 .................................. =
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31-32.5 ................................. -10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................42.5-44 ................................. +3.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+0.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 37-38.5 ................................. +0.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................38.5-40 ..................................+5.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................28.5-30...................................-1.5
For the first time Everton have overtaken us in the spread market expectations. They've got some very winnable games coming up before they have to go to Anfield at the end of January so i'll be sitting on my buy of Everton and of Lukaku until then at least.
With Man City in particular scoring for fun and us reaching the time of the season where some teams are stretched for resources i've had a little buy of the season Going For Goals market @ 470 for £5. This awards 5 pts for any team scoring 4 goals, 10pts for 5, 25 pts for 6, 50 for 7 and 100 for 8 or more goals. Currently the season total is 195 pts (Man City have accounted for 115 of those and Liverpool 35) so I need another 275 pts from the remaining games to break even which is about 13.1 pts a game week.
Last edited:
fatpiranha
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After 19 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 81-82.5 ................................ +1
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 77-78.5 ................................. -3
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 71-72.5 ................................ -7
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 77-78.5 ................................. +4.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 71-72.5 ................................. +7
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67-68.5 ................................. +14.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 56-57.5 ................................. +11.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54.................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 43.5-45 ................................. -1
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 35.5-37 .................................. -7
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 39.5-41 ..................................-3
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -6.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -7.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40.5-42 ................................. +1.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37-38.5 .................................. -2
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -1.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................40-41.5 ..................................+7
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................31-32.5...................................+0.5
We've now reached the halfway point in the season and played the last Premiership games of 2013. 4pts from the last 2 games is exactly what the spreads predicted so our spread doesn't move. We have actually performed 0.5 pts better than SPIN expected which was clearly not enough to save AVB's job demonstrating that it's not just what you do but how you do it that counts.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 81-82.5 ................................ +1
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 77-78.5 ................................. -3
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 71-72.5 ................................ -7
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 77-78.5 ................................. +4.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 71-72.5 ................................. +7
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67-68.5 ................................. +14.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 56-57.5 ................................. +11.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54.................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 43.5-45 ................................. -1
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 35.5-37 .................................. -7
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 39.5-41 ..................................-3
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -6.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -7.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40.5-42 ................................. +1.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37-38.5 .................................. -2
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -1.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................40-41.5 ..................................+7
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................31-32.5...................................+0.5
We've now reached the halfway point in the season and played the last Premiership games of 2013. 4pts from the last 2 games is exactly what the spreads predicted so our spread doesn't move. We have actually performed 0.5 pts better than SPIN expected which was clearly not enough to save AVB's job demonstrating that it's not just what you do but how you do it that counts.
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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- #26
After 20 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 82-83.5 ................................ +2
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 78.5-80 ................................. -1.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 78-79.5 ................................. +5.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68-69.5 ................................. +2.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 72-73.5 ................................. +8
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +13.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 54.5-56 ................................. +10
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 51.5-53.................................. +7
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 42.5-44 ................................. -2
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 40.5-42 ..................................-2.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 34.5-36 .................................. -8
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 41.5-43 ..................................-1
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 36.5-38 ................................. -5.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 32-33.5 ................................. -9
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40.5-42 ................................. +1.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37-38.5 .................................. -2
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -1.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+6.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30.5-32................................... =
Our magnificent win at Old Trafford sees us rise 2 pts which is somewhat less than Moyes' blood pressure did
. Arsenal slip behind Chelsea to 3rd favourites for the title.
Everton and Newcastle remain the best buys although both their quotes slip a pt, while Liverpool take over from Southampton as the 3rd best performers.
At the other end of the scale Man Utd join Sunderland as the underachievers of the season just ahead of West Ham.
Currently all my long term punts (Spurs, Everton, Lukaku, Swindon & Going for Goals) are trading higher than when I bought them, although a couple would make a small loss if I cashed them in as they haven't increased enough to cover the spread.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 82-83.5 ................................ +2
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 78.5-80 ................................. -1.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 78-79.5 ................................. +5.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68-69.5 ................................. +2.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 72-73.5 ................................. +8
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 66-67.5 ................................. +13.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 54.5-56 ................................. +10
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 51.5-53.................................. +7
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 42.5-44 ................................. -2
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 40.5-42 ..................................-2.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 34.5-36 .................................. -8
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 41.5-43 ..................................-1
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 36.5-38 ................................. -5.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 32-33.5 ................................. -9
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40.5-42 ................................. +1.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37-38.5 .................................. -2
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 35-36.5 ................................. -1.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+6.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30.5-32................................... =
Our magnificent win at Old Trafford sees us rise 2 pts which is somewhat less than Moyes' blood pressure did
. Arsenal slip behind Chelsea to 3rd favourites for the title.Everton and Newcastle remain the best buys although both their quotes slip a pt, while Liverpool take over from Southampton as the 3rd best performers.
At the other end of the scale Man Utd join Sunderland as the underachievers of the season just ahead of West Ham.
Currently all my long term punts (Spurs, Everton, Lukaku, Swindon & Going for Goals) are trading higher than when I bought them, although a couple would make a small loss if I cashed them in as they haven't increased enough to cover the spread.
TottenhamLegend
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- Jun 13, 2012
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I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but that original Everton spread was superb value.
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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Everton managed 63 pts last season. Compared to their opening quote of 52.5-54 this seemed very low especially when you consider that Liverpool who managed only 61 pts last season had an opening quote of 64-65.5. You could argue that Liverpool had done better business in the transfer window having brought in Mignolet, Kolo Toure, Moses & Sakho but it didn't seem that way to me when Everton had brought in Lukaku, McCarthy, Deulofeu & Barry. Admittedly they had lost Fellaini but i'd never been much of a fan of the Belgian.
The main difference seemed to be that Everton had replaced Moyes with Martinez; a manager I didn't rate with the manager I wanted us to replace Harry with when we instead appointed AVB, so for me they were a team I was already keeping an eye on.
They didn't start too well with 3 draws against Norwich, West Brom and Cardiff but the match reports & stats suggested they had dominated those games and been unlucky not to win them. They followed up with good wins at home to Chelsea and away to West Ham which persuaded me to take the plunge and buy them. I didn't time it perfectly paying a pt more than their opening quote and 4 pts more than the quote after they had drawn against Cardiff when they were available to buy at 51 pts but I thought it safer to wait and see if they actually played well under Martinez than to gamble on it from the off.
I missed the best trade available in the premiership this season though. In the Premier League Golden Boot Index Luis Suarez was quoted as low as 7-9 while he was serving his ban. I was put off by the uncertainty as to whether he would even be playing in the premiership after the winter window. Now he is quoted at 53-56; a massive 47 pts higher than his earlier quote
.Overall my best advice when buying is to seek out the unfashionable teams (especially outside London) and players. I did very well with Rickie Lambert last season who I bought for 6 in the Golden Boot Index and made up at 30. The quotes on the well supported teams are usually inflated because of the number of 'fan buyers' who will back their team just for a bit of added interest. Similarly London teams tend to have inflated prices because most of Sporting Index's clients are London based (when it started it was mainly people who worked in the City of London who chose this form of betting and that still accounts for a large proportion of SPIN's client base).
Consider this years' Premier League index and how teams are doing compared to their original quotes:
Fashionable & London teams -
Liverpool +8
Arsenal +5.5
Spurs +2.5
Man City +2
Palace =
Chelsea -1.5
Fulham -5.5
West Ham -8
Man Utd -9
average -0.67
The Rest -
Everton +13.5
Newcastle +10
Soton +7
Hull +6.5
Stoke +1.5
Villa -1
Cardiff -1.5
Norwich -2
Swansea -2
WBA -2.5
Sunderland -9
average +2.5
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #29
After 21 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 82.5-84 ................................ +2.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 79.5-81 ................................. -0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 79-80.5 ................................. +6.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68.5-70 ................................. +3
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 73-74.5 ................................. +9
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67.5-69 ................................. +15
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 53.5-55 ................................. +9
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54.................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 42-43.5 ................................. -2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ..................................-3.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 36-37.5 .................................. -6.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34.5-36 ................................. -7
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 34.5-36 ................................. -6.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ................................. +0.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................36.5-38 .................................. -2.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -2.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ..................................+6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30.5-32................................... =
With the top 7 teams all winning this week the league has split into 3 groups. The top 7 are all in with a chance of the title or at least a CL qualifying finish. Newcastle and Southampton are in mid table 'no man's land' and must already be turning their minds to their summer holidays while the bottom 11 clubs are separated by only 4 pts and have a huge relegation melee in prospect. That's not good for us; we would prefer 3 clubs tailed off and then our 'easy' run in might actually be easy. The way things stand it looks like we might be facing sides desperate for premiership survival & fighting like rabid wolverines for every point.
There are a few unusual movements in the spreads this week. We gain 0.5 pts which suggests we were expected to beat Palace at home. Palace in fact are unpenalised for their loss which is unusual but they did show an improved performance.
Everton jump 1.5 pts which is a lot for a routine win against Norwich at home so that suggests a bit of money has been placed on the buy side for them.
Meanwhile Man Utd get nothing for their win over Swansea which suggests somebody has been selling them big time.
The big gainers this week though were Sunderland who jumped 2.5 pts after their win at Craven Cottage and now have the same quote as Fulham who were 4.5 pts ahead of them last week.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 82.5-84 ................................ +2.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 79.5-81 ................................. -0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 69-70.5 ................................ -9
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 79-80.5 ................................. +6.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68.5-70 ................................. +3
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 73-74.5 ................................. +9
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 67.5-69 ................................. +15
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 53.5-55 ................................. +9
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 52.5-54.................................. +8
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 42-43.5 ................................. -2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ..................................-3.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 36-37.5 .................................. -6.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34.5-36 ................................. -7
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 34.5-36 ................................. -6.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ................................. +0.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................36.5-38 .................................. -2.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -2.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ..................................+6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................30.5-32................................... =
With the top 7 teams all winning this week the league has split into 3 groups. The top 7 are all in with a chance of the title or at least a CL qualifying finish. Newcastle and Southampton are in mid table 'no man's land' and must already be turning their minds to their summer holidays while the bottom 11 clubs are separated by only 4 pts and have a huge relegation melee in prospect. That's not good for us; we would prefer 3 clubs tailed off and then our 'easy' run in might actually be easy. The way things stand it looks like we might be facing sides desperate for premiership survival & fighting like rabid wolverines for every point
.There are a few unusual movements in the spreads this week. We gain 0.5 pts which suggests we were expected to beat Palace at home. Palace in fact are unpenalised for their loss which is unusual but they did show an improved performance.
Everton jump 1.5 pts which is a lot for a routine win against Norwich at home so that suggests a bit of money has been placed on the buy side for them.
Meanwhile Man Utd get nothing for their win over Swansea which suggests somebody has been selling them big time.
The big gainers this week though were Sunderland who jumped 2.5 pts after their win at Craven Cottage and now have the same quote as Fulham who were 4.5 pts ahead of them last week
.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #30
After 22 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 83.5-85 ................................. +3.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81-82.5 ................................. +1
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 68.5-70 ................................. -9.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 80-81.5 ................................. +7.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 70-71.5 ................................. +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 71.5-73 ................................. +7.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 66.5-68 ................................. +14
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 55.5-57 ................................. +11
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 51-52.5.................................. +6.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 41-42.5 ................................. -3.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 34.5-36 .................................. -8
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40-41.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................38-39.5 ................................. -1
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37.5-39 ................................. -1.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ................................. +6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................32.5-34................................... +2
For the first time SPIN have us finishing ahead of Man Utd.
Palace continue their remarkable recovery under Tony Pulis and are now quoted 9.5 pts higher than they were after 10 games. SPIN still reckon they'll finish rock bottom though.
The best buys are still Everton and Newcastle but Liverpool are now tied with Arsenal for 3rd best as Southampton's draw at Sunderland and boardroom uncertainties sees their quote drop.
Hull's loss to Norwich seems to have been negated by their activity in the transfer market and their quote remains unchanged.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 83.5-85 ................................. +3.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81-82.5 ................................. +1
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 68.5-70 ................................. -9.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 80-81.5 ................................. +7.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 70-71.5 ................................. +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 71.5-73 ................................. +7.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 66.5-68 ................................. +14
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 55.5-57 ................................. +11
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 51-52.5.................................. +6.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 41-42.5 ................................. -3.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ..................................-4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 34.5-36 .................................. -8
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40-41.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 34-35.5 ................................. -7
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................38-39.5 ................................. -1
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37.5-39 ................................. -1.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ................................. +6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................32.5-34................................... +2
For the first time SPIN have us finishing ahead of Man Utd
.Palace continue their remarkable recovery under Tony Pulis and are now quoted 9.5 pts higher than they were after 10 games. SPIN still reckon they'll finish rock bottom though.
The best buys are still Everton and Newcastle but Liverpool are now tied with Arsenal for 3rd best as Southampton's draw at Sunderland and boardroom uncertainties sees their quote drop.
Hull's loss to Norwich seems to have been negated by their activity in the transfer market and their quote remains unchanged.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #31
After 25 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 81.5-83 ................................. +1.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 83-84.5 ................................. +3
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 66-67.5 ................................. -12
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 78-79.5 ..................................+5.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 69-70.5 ................................. +3.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 74-75.5 ................................. +10
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 65.5-67 ................................. +13
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 52-53.5 ................................. +7.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 53-54.5.................................. +8.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 41.5-43 ................................. -3
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 36.5-38 ..................................-6.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 38.5-40 .................................. -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40-41.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 32.5-34 ................................. -9
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 36-37.5 ................................. -5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40-41.5 ................................. +1
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................36.5-38 ................................. -2.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................40.5-42 .................................+7.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................36.5-38...................................+6
It's been 3 games since I last updated this thread. In that time Chelsea have overtaken Man City as the new favourites for the title with Arsenal dropping away as they hit the tough part of their schedule and Liverpool frustratingly continuing their good form and making it tough for us to get 4th.
We drop a point from the last update as do Everton but Man Utd continue to underperform under Moyes and are the best sell by a clear 3 pts from bottom of the table Fulham. Newcastle meanwhile are struggling without Cabaye which is just as well as we face them next.
West Ham and Crystal Palace are the teams who have gained most since the last update gaining 4 pts while WBA are paying for their inconsistency and firmly in the relegation battle.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 81.5-83 ................................. +1.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 83-84.5 ................................. +3
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 66-67.5 ................................. -12
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 78-79.5 ..................................+5.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 69-70.5 ................................. +3.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 74-75.5 ................................. +10
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 65.5-67 ................................. +13
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 52-53.5 ................................. +7.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 53-54.5.................................. +8.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 41.5-43 ................................. -3
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 36.5-38 ..................................-6.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 38.5-40 .................................. -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40-41.5 ..................................-2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 32.5-34 ................................. -9
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 36-37.5 ................................. -5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40-41.5 ................................. +1
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................36.5-38 ................................. -2.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 33.5-35 ................................. -3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................40.5-42 .................................+7.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................36.5-38...................................+6
It's been 3 games since I last updated this thread. In that time Chelsea have overtaken Man City as the new favourites for the title with Arsenal dropping away as they hit the tough part of their schedule and Liverpool frustratingly continuing their good form and making it tough for us to get 4th.
We drop a point from the last update as do Everton but Man Utd continue to underperform under Moyes and are the best sell by a clear 3 pts from bottom of the table Fulham. Newcastle meanwhile are struggling without Cabaye which is just as well as we face them next.
West Ham and Crystal Palace are the teams who have gained most since the last update gaining 4 pts while WBA are paying for their inconsistency and firmly in the relegation battle.
Last edited:
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #32
After 30-32 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5........................... 84-85 ................................. +3.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81-82 ................................. +0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 65.5-66.5 ............................. -13
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .......................... 75-76 ................................. +2
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .......................... 66.5-67.5 .............................+0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5........................... 83-84 ................................. +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 70.5-71.5 ............................ +17.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .......................... 51.5-52.5 ............................ +6.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46........................... 55-56.................................. +10
Swansea......................... 44.5-46........................... 40-41 ................................. -5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .......................... 36-37 ................................. -7.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44........................... 42-43 .................................. -1
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40.5-41.5 .............................. -2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43.......................... 30-31 .................................. -12
Sunderland ......................41-42.5........................... 32-33 .................................. -9.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ......................... 46.5-47.5 ............................. +6.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ......................... 36-37 .................................. -3.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.......................... 31.5-32.5 ............................. -5.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 ......................... 39-40 .................................. +5.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ......................... 36.5-37.5.............................. +5.5
It's been a while since i've updated this thread as i've been out of the country quite a bit (not that many people are watching it anyway). In that time Liverpool, Everton and Stoke have been the big winners and Sunderland the biggest loser. So far overall Liverpool and Everton have been the best buys and Man Utd and Fulham the best sells. Anyone who bought Southampton or sold Sunderland at the original quotes is also sitting on a tidy profit.
On a personal note all 6 trades i've posted on here are currently trading in my favour although my biggest trade (buying Spurs premiership points) would actually make me a small loss if I cashed it in now due to the spread (which you will notice is down to 1 pt rather than the original 1.5).
Individually they were:
Buying Spurs premiership pts - My least successful trade. Obviously my heart probably ruled my head here and I bet on what I wanted to happen. That said despite sacking our manager, not getting the best available price, and only Eriksen out of our summer signings coming good I currently stand to break even.
Buying Everton Premiership points - I didn't get the best available price but I waited until I saw how they were performing and it only cost me 1pt. A mistake far too many bettors make is to plunge in early rather than bet in running when they have far more information. People overestimate how much the prices change and charge in in fear of losing value. In most cases this is a bad decision as the prices are mainly set by a computer that is working to a formula rather than watching like we humans do.
Buying Swindon League 1 points - Frankly this was a bad bet even though i'm currently in profit. I bought on the basis of the 3 loan signings they got from us as I really rate Pritchard and Mason but I know sweet FA about League 1 and the Spurs players have been injured most of the time. I lucked out on this one.
Buying Romelu Lukaku on the premiership Golden Boot Index - I could have cashed this in for a lot more than I can now but I got greedy. I'll still make a good profit but I there was a point where I could basically have swapped Lukaku for Sturridge. Again my heart ruled my head as I didn't want to cheer on a team I thought was our CL rival. A costly error.
Selling Ricky Van Dogspenis on the premiership Golden Boot Index - Only a small bet that was basically stealing money. These types of opportunities crop up a lot more on the spreads than they do on the fixed odds. Basically it's like getting 10/1 on on a bet that should be 100/1 on. Value is value; it all adds up.
Buying the Going for Goals market @ 470. This was one of the premiership specials markets. I've been following this for a few years now. Typically it is all about timing and watching what is happening in the league. When there is a tight scrap and points are all important there aren't many thrashings but this year Liverpool and Man City have played very entertaining football and towards the end of the season there are often a lot of high scoring games when teams have nothing to play for. The market is currently trading at 520-540 so i'm looking at an mid-point profit of 60x my stake. The spread hasn't changed all season; it's still the 20 pts it was at the start. That's good to know in so far as it is not a market you can really cash in on in running. You just have to make a decision and stick with it otherwise the spread really screws you.
If any of you followed my tips and made some money then good luck to you and I hope it doesn't all go tits up in the last 6-8 games.
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5........................... 84-85 ................................. +3.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81-82 ................................. +0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 65.5-66.5 ............................. -13
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .......................... 75-76 ................................. +2
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .......................... 66.5-67.5 .............................+0.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5........................... 83-84 ................................. +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 70.5-71.5 ............................ +17.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .......................... 51.5-52.5 ............................ +6.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46........................... 55-56.................................. +10
Swansea......................... 44.5-46........................... 40-41 ................................. -5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .......................... 36-37 ................................. -7.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44........................... 42-43 .................................. -1
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44.......................... 40.5-41.5 .............................. -2.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43.......................... 30-31 .................................. -12
Sunderland ......................41-42.5........................... 32-33 .................................. -9.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ......................... 46.5-47.5 ............................. +6.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ......................... 36-37 .................................. -3.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.......................... 31.5-32.5 ............................. -5.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 ......................... 39-40 .................................. +5.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ......................... 36.5-37.5.............................. +5.5
It's been a while since i've updated this thread as i've been out of the country quite a bit (not that many people are watching it anyway
). In that time Liverpool, Everton and Stoke have been the big winners and Sunderland the biggest loser. So far overall Liverpool and Everton have been the best buys and Man Utd and Fulham the best sells. Anyone who bought Southampton or sold Sunderland at the original quotes is also sitting on a tidy profit.On a personal note all 6 trades i've posted on here are currently trading in my favour although my biggest trade (buying Spurs premiership points) would actually make me a small loss if I cashed it in now due to the spread (which you will notice is down to 1 pt rather than the original 1.5).
Individually they were:
Buying Spurs premiership pts - My least successful trade. Obviously my heart probably ruled my head here and I bet on what I wanted to happen. That said despite sacking our manager, not getting the best available price, and only Eriksen out of our summer signings coming good I currently stand to break even.
Buying Everton Premiership points - I didn't get the best available price but I waited until I saw how they were performing and it only cost me 1pt. A mistake far too many bettors make is to plunge in early rather than bet in running when they have far more information. People overestimate how much the prices change and charge in in fear of losing value. In most cases this is a bad decision as the prices are mainly set by a computer that is working to a formula rather than watching like we humans do.
Buying Swindon League 1 points - Frankly this was a bad bet even though i'm currently in profit. I bought on the basis of the 3 loan signings they got from us as I really rate Pritchard and Mason but I know sweet FA about League 1 and the Spurs players have been injured most of the time. I lucked out on this one
.Buying Romelu Lukaku on the premiership Golden Boot Index - I could have cashed this in for a lot more than I can now but I got greedy. I'll still make a good profit but I there was a point where I could basically have swapped Lukaku for Sturridge. Again my heart ruled my head as I didn't want to cheer on a team I thought was our CL rival. A costly error.
Selling Ricky Van Dogspenis on the premiership Golden Boot Index - Only a small bet that was basically stealing money. These types of opportunities crop up a lot more on the spreads than they do on the fixed odds. Basically it's like getting 10/1 on on a bet that should be 100/1 on. Value is value; it all adds up.
Buying the Going for Goals market @ 470. This was one of the premiership specials markets. I've been following this for a few years now. Typically it is all about timing and watching what is happening in the league. When there is a tight scrap and points are all important there aren't many thrashings but this year Liverpool and Man City have played very entertaining football and towards the end of the season there are often a lot of high scoring games when teams have nothing to play for. The market is currently trading at 520-540 so i'm looking at an mid-point profit of 60x my stake. The spread hasn't changed all season; it's still the 20 pts it was at the start. That's good to know in so far as it is not a market you can really cash in on in running. You just have to make a decision and stick with it otherwise the spread really screws you.
If any of you followed my tips and made some money then good luck to you and I hope it doesn't all go tits up in the last 6-8 games
.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #33
After 31-33 games -
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5........................... 85-86 ............................ +4.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81.5-82.5 ........................ +1
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 66.5-67.5 ........................ -12
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .......................... 74-75 ............................. +1
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .......................... 67.5-68.5 ........................ +1.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5........................... 84-85 ............................. +19.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 72.5-73.5 ........................ +19.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .......................... 50.5-51.5 ........................ +5.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46........................... 54.5-55.5 ........................ +9.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46........................... 39-40 ............................. -6
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .......................... 38-39 ............................. -5.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44........................... 41.5-42.5 ........................ -1.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44........................... 38.5-39.5 ........................ -4.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43.......................... 33-34 .............................. -9
Sunderland ......................41-42.5........................... 30.5-31.5 ........................ -11
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ......................... 46-47 ............................. +6.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ......................... 34.5-35.5 ........................ -5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.......................... 30-31 ............................. -7
Hull .................................33-34.5 ......................... 40.5-41.5 ........................ +7
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ......................... 38.5-39.5......................... +7.5
The title now looks very much like a 2 horse race between Man City and Liverpool but Chelsea could still have a say if they win at Anfield as the rest of their games are very winnable.
Meanwhile Cardiff and Sunderland look doomed for the drop with the final relegation place between Fulham and Norwich. The crunch match is this weekend when the Canaries visit the Cottage. If Fulham fail to win then they only have a mathematical chance of staying up but a victory would make them favourites to survive as it is difficult to see Norwich getting anything from their last 4 fixtures against Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal.
We are still technically in the race for 4th but need to win our last 5 games (which is possible given relatively easy fixtures) while needing Everton and Arsenal to drop points. It's a long shot though; Arsenal have a comfortable run in and would need to lose twice to give us a chance while Everton have a tougher task with a trip to the Saints and 2 home matches against the Manc sides.
One very interesting thing the spreads can tell us is how teams have actually performed against their expected performance. The spreads are a far better indicator of this than the handicap forms produced by the normal bookmakers as those are printed some weeks before the season starts. Using the buy price:
Team ................ Predicted performance ...... Actual performance (so far) ... Difference
Everton ..................... 54 ............................... 73.5 ................................ +19.5
Liverpool .................... 65.5 ............................ 85 ................................... +19.5
Southampton .............. 46 ............................... 55.5 ................................ +9.5
C Palace .................... 32 ............................... 39.5 ................................ +7.5
Hull ........................... 34.5 ............................ 41.5 ................................ +7
Stoke ........................ 40.5 ............................ 47 ................................... +6.5
Newcastle .................. 46 ............................... 51.5 ................................ +5
Man City .................... 81.5 ............................ 86 ................................... +4.5
Spurs ........................ 67 ............................... 68.5 ................................. +1.5
Arsenal ...................... 74 ............................... 75 ................................... +1
Chelsea ..................... 81.5 ............................. 82.5 ................................. +1
West Ham .................. 44 ............................... 42.5 ................................. -1.5
A Villa ........................ 44 ............................... 39.5 ................................ -4.5
Norwich ..................... 40.5 ............................. 35.5 ................................ -5
WBA .......................... 44.5 ............................ 39 ................................... -5.5
Swansea .................... 46 ............................... 40 ................................... -6
Cardiff ....................... 38 ............................... 31 ................................... -7
Fulham ...................... 43 ............................... 34 .................................... -9
Sunderland ................. 42.5 ............................ 31.5 .................................. -11
Man Utd .................... 79.5 ............................. 67.5 ................................. -12
A few things to note:
The bottom 7 underperforming teams have all sacked their manager with the notable exception of the worst performing team.
The manager of the season is not Martinez or Rodgers but in fact the oft reviled Tony Pulis who are 15.5 points better off than they were when he took over after 11 games. Extrapolating from those figures if he had been in place at the start of the season Palace would top the 'expectation league' with +22.5 pts.
In relation to expectation we are currently outperforming Arsenal, Chelsea and West Ham, all of whom will probably be happier with their seasons in the league than we are. Are we a 'cup half-empty fanbase' who expects too much?
.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5........................... 85-86 ............................ +4.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5........................... 81.5-82.5 ........................ +1
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 66.5-67.5 ........................ -12
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .......................... 74-75 ............................. +1
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .......................... 67.5-68.5 ........................ +1.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5........................... 84-85 ............................. +19.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 ......................... 72.5-73.5 ........................ +19.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .......................... 50.5-51.5 ........................ +5.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46........................... 54.5-55.5 ........................ +9.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46........................... 39-40 ............................. -6
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .......................... 38-39 ............................. -5.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44........................... 41.5-42.5 ........................ -1.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44........................... 38.5-39.5 ........................ -4.5
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43.......................... 33-34 .............................. -9
Sunderland ......................41-42.5........................... 30.5-31.5 ........................ -11
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ......................... 46-47 ............................. +6.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ......................... 34.5-35.5 ........................ -5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.......................... 30-31 ............................. -7
Hull .................................33-34.5 ......................... 40.5-41.5 ........................ +7
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ......................... 38.5-39.5......................... +7.5
The title now looks very much like a 2 horse race between Man City and Liverpool but Chelsea could still have a say if they win at Anfield as the rest of their games are very winnable.
Meanwhile Cardiff and Sunderland look doomed for the drop with the final relegation place between Fulham and Norwich. The crunch match is this weekend when the Canaries visit the Cottage. If Fulham fail to win then they only have a mathematical chance of staying up but a victory would make them favourites to survive as it is difficult to see Norwich getting anything from their last 4 fixtures against Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal.
We are still technically in the race for 4th but need to win our last 5 games (which is possible given relatively easy fixtures) while needing Everton and Arsenal to drop points. It's a long shot though; Arsenal have a comfortable run in and would need to lose twice to give us a chance while Everton have a tougher task with a trip to the Saints and 2 home matches against the Manc sides.
One very interesting thing the spreads can tell us is how teams have actually performed against their expected performance. The spreads are a far better indicator of this than the handicap forms produced by the normal bookmakers as those are printed some weeks before the season starts. Using the buy price:
Team ................ Predicted performance ...... Actual performance (so far) ... Difference
Everton ..................... 54 ............................... 73.5 ................................ +19.5
Liverpool .................... 65.5 ............................ 85 ................................... +19.5
Southampton .............. 46 ............................... 55.5 ................................ +9.5
C Palace .................... 32 ............................... 39.5 ................................ +7.5
Hull ........................... 34.5 ............................ 41.5 ................................ +7
Stoke ........................ 40.5 ............................ 47 ................................... +6.5
Newcastle .................. 46 ............................... 51.5 ................................ +5
Man City .................... 81.5 ............................ 86 ................................... +4.5
Spurs ........................ 67 ............................... 68.5 ................................. +1.5
Arsenal ...................... 74 ............................... 75 ................................... +1
Chelsea ..................... 81.5 ............................. 82.5 ................................. +1
West Ham .................. 44 ............................... 42.5 ................................. -1.5
A Villa ........................ 44 ............................... 39.5 ................................ -4.5
Norwich ..................... 40.5 ............................. 35.5 ................................ -5
WBA .......................... 44.5 ............................ 39 ................................... -5.5
Swansea .................... 46 ............................... 40 ................................... -6
Cardiff ....................... 38 ............................... 31 ................................... -7
Fulham ...................... 43 ............................... 34 .................................... -9
Sunderland ................. 42.5 ............................ 31.5 .................................. -11
Man Utd .................... 79.5 ............................. 67.5 ................................. -12
A few things to note:
The bottom 7 underperforming teams have all sacked their manager with the notable exception of the worst performing team.
The manager of the season is not Martinez or Rodgers but in fact the oft reviled Tony Pulis who are 15.5 points better off than they were when he took over after 11 games. Extrapolating from those figures if he had been in place at the start of the season Palace would top the 'expectation league' with +22.5 pts.
In relation to expectation we are currently outperforming Arsenal, Chelsea and West Ham, all of whom will probably be happier with their seasons in the league than we are. Are we a 'cup half-empty fanbase' who expects too much?
Last edited:
theShiznit
Well-Known Member
- Jul 26, 2004
- 17,911
- 23,995
Sorry for hijacking your thread FatP.
but received an offer from Spreadex and wanted to know if there's anything in it. for anyone knowledgeable about spreadbetting and/or financials.
Terms for Financials
Only ever done spread betting for opening offers on a few sites and this is a bit more in depth than that.
Is there anyway to do this with a minimum loss (without betting the opposite position elsewhere)
but received an offer from Spreadex and wanted to know if there's anything in it. for anyone knowledgeable about spreadbetting and/or financials.
Terms for Sports
Terms for Financials
Only ever done spread betting for opening offers on a few sites and this is a bit more in depth than that.
Is there anyway to do this with a minimum loss (without betting the opposite position elsewhere)
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #35
I know nothing about financials so I can't help you with that.
As far as the sports spreads are concerned what you would be looking for is a market with low volatility (and if you were planning on taking a minimum loss which would be less than the value of the offer, then a small spread). Unfortunately they have severely limited the markets that count towards your offer (otherwise this would be easy). All the qualifying markets are horrendously volatile and the spread size are no bargains either.
The spread firms do make some really good offers especially for opening new accounts (there are usually some particularly juicy ones to entice people to open accounts during the World Cup or other big events) but this is one I would advise you to give a very wide berth.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #36
Final result
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5................................ 86 ............................ +4.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5................................ 82 ............................ +0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ............................... 64 ............................ -15.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ............................... 79 ............................ +5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ............................... 69 ............................ +1.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5................................ 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ............................... 49 ............................ +3
Southampton ...................44.5-46................................ 56 ............................ +10
Swansea......................... 44.5-46................................ 42 ............................ -4
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................. -8.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44................................ 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................. -6
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Sunderland ......................41-42.5............................... 38 ............................ -4.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.............................. 30 ............................ -8
Hull .................................33-34.5 ............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ............................. 45 ............................ +13
In order of finishing position
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5................................ 86 ............................ +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5................................ 84 ............................ +18.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5................................ 82 ............................ +0.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ............................... 79 ............................ +5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ............................... 69 ............................ +1.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ............................... 64 ............................ -15.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46................................ 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ............................. 50 ............................. +9.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ............................... 49 ............................ +3
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ............................. 45 ............................. +13
Swansea......................... 44.5-46................................ 42 ............................ -4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44................................ 40 ............................ -4
Sunderland ......................41-42.5............................... 38 ............................. -4.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................. -6
Hull .................................33-34.5 ............................. 37 ............................. +2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................. -8.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ............................. 33 ............................. -7.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................. -11
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38.............................. 30 .............................. -8
In order of performance against expectation
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Liverpool ......................... 64-65.5............................... 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .............................. 45 ............................ +13
Southampton ................... 44.5-46............................... 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Arsenal ........................... 72.5-74 .............................. 79 ............................ +5
Man City.......................... 80-81.5................................86 ............................ +4.5
Newcastle ....................... 44.5-46 .............................. 49 ............................ +3
Hull ................................ 33-34.5 .............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
Spurs.............................. 65.5-67 .............................. 69 ............................ +1.5
Chelsea........................... 80-81.5............................... 82 ............................ +0.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46............................... 42 ............................ -4
West Ham........................ 42.5-44............................... 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................ -6
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38............................... 30 ............................ -8
WBA .............................. 43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................ -8.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Man Utd.......................... 78-79.5 .............................. 64 ............................ -15.5
Sunderland pulled off the great escape and went from relegation certainties to finish 14th. Congratulations to Gus Poyet and also to Tony Pulis who would have surely taken Crystal Palace to the top of the performance against expectation league if he had had a full season. The 2 Merseyside clubs top that particular table and Man Utd finish bottom showing how truly dire Moyes' reign was. We finished above SPIN's expectation but were right in the middle of the table. I guess that sums up our season. Bang average.
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5................................ 86 ............................ +4.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5................................ 82 ............................ +0.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ............................... 64 ............................ -15.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ............................... 79 ............................ +5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ............................... 69 ............................ +1.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5................................ 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ............................... 49 ............................ +3
Southampton ...................44.5-46................................ 56 ............................ +10
Swansea......................... 44.5-46................................ 42 ............................ -4
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................. -8.5
West Ham....................... 42.5-44................................ 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................. -6
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Sunderland ......................41-42.5............................... 38 ............................ -4.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38.............................. 30 ............................ -8
Hull .................................33-34.5 ............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ............................. 45 ............................ +13
In order of finishing position
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5................................ 86 ............................ +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5................................ 84 ............................ +18.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5................................ 82 ............................ +0.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ............................... 79 ............................ +5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ............................... 69 ............................ +1.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ............................... 64 ............................ -15.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46................................ 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 ............................. 50 ............................. +9.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ............................... 49 ............................ +3
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 ............................. 45 ............................. +13
Swansea......................... 44.5-46................................ 42 ............................ -4
West Ham....................... 42.5-44................................ 40 ............................ -4
Sunderland ......................41-42.5............................... 38 ............................. -4.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................. -6
Hull .................................33-34.5 ............................. 37 ............................. +2.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................. -8.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 ............................. 33 ............................. -7.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................. -11
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38.............................. 30 .............................. -8
In order of performance against expectation
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Liverpool ......................... 64-65.5............................... 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .............................. 45 ............................ +13
Southampton ................... 44.5-46............................... 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Arsenal ........................... 72.5-74 .............................. 79 ............................ +5
Man City.......................... 80-81.5................................86 ............................ +4.5
Newcastle ....................... 44.5-46 .............................. 49 ............................ +3
Hull ................................ 33-34.5 .............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
Spurs.............................. 65.5-67 .............................. 69 ............................ +1.5
Chelsea........................... 80-81.5............................... 82 ............................ +0.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46............................... 42 ............................ -4
West Ham........................ 42.5-44............................... 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................ -6
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38............................... 30 ............................ -8
WBA .............................. 43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................ -8.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Man Utd.......................... 78-79.5 .............................. 64 ............................ -15.5
Sunderland pulled off the great escape and went from relegation certainties to finish 14th. Congratulations to Gus Poyet and also to Tony Pulis who would have surely taken Crystal Palace to the top of the performance against expectation league if he had had a full season. The 2 Merseyside clubs top that particular table and Man Utd finish bottom showing how truly dire Moyes' reign was. We finished above SPIN's expectation but were right in the middle of the table. I guess that sums up our season. Bang average
.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #37
New Season and SPIN have issued their spreads again. I probably won't update much.
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46
Southampton ............ 42.5-44
Swansea ................... 42-43.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42
Hull ........................... 40-41.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38
Leicester ................... 39-40.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40
West Brom ................ 37.5-39
QPR ........................... 37.5-39
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5
The market actually started about a week ago. With the exception of Palace who dropped 3 pts this evening with the news of Pulis leaving not a lot has happened so far. We've dropped 0.5 pts from our opening spread.
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46
Southampton ............ 42.5-44
Swansea ................... 42-43.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42
Hull ........................... 40-41.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38
Leicester ................... 39-40.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40
West Brom ................ 37.5-39
QPR ........................... 37.5-39
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5
The market actually started about a week ago. With the exception of Palace who dropped 3 pts this evening with the news of Pulis leaving not a lot has happened so far. We've dropped 0.5 pts from our opening spread.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #38
Had a little nibble on us at 65.5 
.
We got 69 pts last season which may have flattered us somewhat but we haven't lost any important players so I don't see us being any weaker. From watching us in pre-season I think Poch is doing a decent job so far and after AVBoring and Tiny (Brain) Tim he hasn't exactly got a Mount Ferguson to climb to improve on last season's effort.
The only sides that look to have made serious improvements are the teams we didn't get any points off last season anyway. My only worry is we may not be making the League the priority this season
.
.We got 69 pts last season which may have flattered us somewhat but we haven't lost any important players so I don't see us being any weaker. From watching us in pre-season I think Poch is doing a decent job so far and after AVBoring and Tiny (Brain) Tim he hasn't exactly got a Mount Ferguson to climb to improve on last season's effort.
The only sides that look to have made serious improvements are the teams we didn't get any points off last season anyway. My only worry is we may not be making the League the priority this season
.
aliyid
Well-Known Member
- Dec 28, 2004
- 7,025
- 20,204
Love this stuff just wish I had enough spare funds lying around to have a flutter.
Think there's good value in
From the values above I wouldn't mind laying Leicester for the first two months (imagine their spread will drop by October looking at their opening fixtures)
Hope you keep the updates coming
Think there's good value in
- Newcastle 45-46.5
- Hull 40-41.5
- Man Utd 75.5-77 (can see them getting off to a great start but would sell in November)
From the values above I wouldn't mind laying Leicester for the first two months (imagine their spread will drop by October looking at their opening fixtures)
Hope you keep the updates coming
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
- Thread starter
- #40
Love this stuff just wish I had enough spare funds lying around to have a flutter.
Think there's good value in
Can you lay against teams too or just bet on ones you think will improve?
- Newcastle 45-46.5
- Hull 40-41.5
- Man Utd 75.5-77 (can see them getting off to a great start but would sell in November)
From the values above I wouldn't mind laying Leicester for the first two months (imagine their spread will drop by October looking at their opening fixtures)
Hope you keep the updates coming
Yes. The lower price in the quote is the sell (lay) price. For example you can buy Hull @ 41.5 (for example for £10) in which case every point they score above 41.5 you get £10 and every point below 41.5 they score you owe £10.
So if you wanted to lay Hull instead you would sell @ 40. For every point below 40 they get you earn £10 and every point above you owe £10.
The difference between the buy and the sell price is known as the spread which is the equivalent of the bookmaker's vigourish.
Note re. Man Utd - SPIN take into account the difficulty of the fixtures so beating a lot of the weaker teams at the start of your campaign will not see the spread rise as much as beating the better teams.
